The second wave of the pandemic showed a sharp increase in the number of cases, followed by a fast drop after it peaked. The changes were sporadic. On March 20, the test positivity rate (TPR) surpassed 1%, but in less than a month, it reached 36 percent on April 22.
Then, by May 31, the TPR had decreased to 0.99 percent, well below the 1% mark. The one in Delhi was no exception. Experts say a similar pattern has been observed in other states, and they link it to the virus variety and people’s behavior habits.
Following the uptick, the number of cases began to fall sharply. Practically everyone who got infected during the second wave wasn’t affected during the first wave. Everyone was vulnerable during the initial wave.
During the second, though, the virus ran out of vulnerable persons after a while. Where the increase was not sudden, but rather gradual, it will take time for the cases to diminish.
The rapid decline in Delhi’s population during the second wave could be an indication of herd immunity, according to experts. Dr. Sharma, on the other hand, said it’s difficult to say whether Delhi has achieved herd immunity or not.
“We will achieve herd immunity if 75-80 percent of the population has generated antibodies against COVID-19, assuming there is no new variant that may bypass immunity and infect people who have already been affected. However, because it is a new virus, we are still learning about it,” Dr. Sharma explained.
However, it can’t be ruled out completely. If the virus mutates and becomes capable of infecting those who have already been affected, a third wave could emerge.
SBI’s Recent Report
According to a recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI), India could experience the much-feared third wave of the coronavirus pandemic starting in the middle of August, with COVID-19 infections peaking in September, while the country is still fighting the second wave.
As per the report to the study, estimates are based on “historical trends,” and the country reached the second wave’s high on May 7. The global data currently says that peak COVID-19 cases during the third wave are nearly twice as many as those in the second wave of the pandemic, or 1.7 times.
The SBI study comes just days after a government group tasked with modeling COVID-19 cases indicated that if COVID-appropriate behavior is not followed, the likely third wave of coronavirus pandemic infection could peak between October and November.
“Although the third wave may see half the daily COVID-19 cases recorded during the second surge, any more virulent variation of SARS-CoV-2 could spread the virus quicker, according to Manindra Agarwal, who is working with the Sutra Model, a mathematical projection of the COVID-19 trajectory.
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